Weaponizing Hormuz

The situation between Iran and Israel appears to have calmed down following their strikes against each other, but there is a palpable sense that this peace may be fleeting.

Though Tehran has demonstrated its ability to breach Israel’s defences, Tel Aviv and its allies possess far superior military capabilities, prompting Iran to consider alternative strategies in case an all-out war erupts between them.

One such strategy could be the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz, a move with potentially far-reaching consequences, especially for global trade and energy markets. What could be the implications of this daring act, especially when coordinated with renewed attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on Israel and its allies in the Red Sea? These questions require careful examination.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical international maritime passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. It contains eight major islands, seven of which are controlled by Iran, which has maintained a military presence on them since the 1970s.

The strait facilitates the transport of 20-25 per cent of the world’s oil supply. Countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE heavily depend on this route for exporting oil to major global markets, including the US, Europe, and Asia.

Geopolitical tensions leading to the disruption or closure of the strait, therefore, would have severe consequences for international trade and energy markets, potentially resulting in reduced global oil supply, price increases, and energy insecurity. Iran in the past has repeatedly threatened to exercise this option in case of any eventuality, while referring to a potential clash with Israel and the US, in particular.

Defence experts concede that Iran certainly has the military capability, primarily through the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, to block the strait. Newly acquired lethal missile technology has made it much easier and convenient for it to pursue this option if pushed to the corner.

However, such actions would likely invite international condemnation and escalate regional tensions. It should, however, also not be overlooked that the US maintains a significant naval presence in the region to ensure maritime security and the smooth flow of commerce through the strait. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet conducts patrols and escorts to protect commercial vessels, including oil tankers, underscoring America’s commitment to global energy security.

In the event of the closure of the strait, alternative routes like the Red Sea via the Suez Canal become critical. However, disruptions in the Red Sea by the Houthis have already emerged as a great challenge for the West in particular. The impact of Houthi attacks is evident as, according to Reuters, over 370 container ships have rerouted around Africa, leading to a 65 per cent decrease in the number of container vessels transiting through the Suez Canal since the outset of the attacks in November last year.

It is important to underline that redirecting ships around the southern tip of Africa is estimated to incur up to an additional $1 million in fuel costs for each round trip between Asia and northern Europe.

The strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be overstated – it stands not only as a vital conduit for global energy supply but also as a potent geopolitical trump card in Iran’s hand. The implicit threat of its closure has arguably remained one of the key factors deterring Israel and its US-led allies from unleashing a war on Iran despite all sabre-rattling.

Now, if Iran convincingly demonstrates its ability, resolve, and diplomatic outreach to shut down the strait for months, its adversaries will find it extremely challenging to engage it in an all-out war. Iran’s recent actions signal a commitment to defending its sovereignty against any perceived threats. This can also be taken as a warning that it will not hesitate to close the strait should the need arise.

The threat of shutting down the strait has long been an integral part of Tehran’s psychological and asymmetrical warfare against Israel and its allies. Perhaps now is the time for Iran to not only include this threat in its active war plans but also demonstrate unequivocally its will and power to exercise this option.

As tensions simmer and uncertainties persist, the imperative for diplomatic engagement and strategic foresight becomes ever more pressing. The fate of the region – and indeed, the world – depends on maintaining a delicate equilibrium within the narrow confines of the Strait of Hormuz.

The writer is an Islamabad-based

researcher with a special interest in India, Pakistan and regional affairs. He can be reached at: sabursayyid@gmail.com