Grand deal with US, Israel: MBS tells Congressmen he’s risking his life: report

KARACHI: Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has mentioned to members of Congress that he is putting his life in danger by pursuing a grand bargain with the US and Israel that includes normalizing Saudi-Israeli ties.

According to a report published in Politico, an American political digital newspaper, on at least one occasion, MBS has invoked Anwar Sadat, the Egyptian leader slain after striking a peace deal with Israel, asking what the US did to protect Sadat.

He also has discussed the threats he faces in explaining why any such deal must include a true path to a Palestinian state — especially now that the war in Gaza has heightened Arab fury toward Israel.

The talks were described by a former US official briefed on the conversations and two other people with knowledge of them. All of the people were granted anonymity to describe a high-stakes, sensitive topic.

The discussions have been weighty and serious, but one takeaway, the people said, is that the crown prince appears intent on striking the mega-deal with the US and Israel despite the risks involved. He sees it as crucial to his country’s future.

The broad contours of the largely secret and still-developing pact have emerged in various reports. It includes multiple US commitments to the Saudis, including security guarantees via a treaty, aid on a civilian nuclear program and economic investment in areas such as technology.

According to some reports, in exchange Saudi Arabia would limit its dealings with China. It also would establish diplomatic and other ties with Israel — a huge boon for the Israelis given Saudi Arabia’s importance among Muslim nations.

To MBS’ chagrin, however, the Israeli government has been unwilling to include a credible path to a Palestinian state in the pact.

“The way he put it was, ‘Saudis care very deeply about this, and the street throughout the Middle East cares deeply about this, and my tenure as the keeper of the holy sites of Islam will not be secure if I don’t address what is the most pressing issue of justice in our region,’” said one of the people with knowledge of conversations MBS has had with regional and American leaders.

Peacemaking is a dangerous business. That’s especially true in the Middle East, where even before the Gaza war MBS was gambling by toying with the idea of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel.

“It’s another way of saying, ‘This is a momentous decision for me. That’s why I need something for it,’” said Dennis Ross, a veteran Middle East negotiator who’s worked for several American presidents.

When contacted, Saudi representatives were hesitant to detail the crown prince’s conversations. The Saudi embassy in Washington declined comment.

A senior Saudi official told Politico, though, that MBS believes that without resolving the Palestinian issue, his country ultimately won’t benefit from the supposed economic, technological and military benefits of the overall deal. That’s because “we’re not going to have regional security and stability without addressing the Palestinian issue,” the official said.

His comments made sense in the context of how others described MBS to me — as a Saudi nationalist.

The Palestinian issue is sensitive in particular because it hurts MBS with younger Saudis who otherwise support his social reforms and provide a bulwark against religious hardliners and royals who oppose him.

“He has a very young population that has been in many ways energized, galvanized by the first major conflict between Israelis and Palestinians that many of them have seen in their lives. It doesn’t take being inside his head to understand that this would be weighing on him,” a second senior Biden administration official told Politico.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow for the creation of a Palestinian state.

Israeli officials told Politico, “Our understanding is that the governments of the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel are all interested in pursuing a deal that covers both US-Saudi bilateral issues and Israel-Saudi normalization. However, it would require certain conditions for such a deal to materialize, not all of which are currently in place.”