A Trumpian world

As the US presidential election results started pouring in on Wednesday and it became clear that Donald Trump was going to be America’s 47th president after a thumping victory, world leaders started congratulating the new US president-elect. Pakistan’s president and prime minister felicitated Trump while Pakistan’s Foreign Office (FO) said the country is committed to strengthening ties with the US and expressed optimism for further improvement. The FO spokesperson said that the change in US leadership is not going to affect Pak-US bilateral relations and PM Shehbaz Sharif said that he looked forward to working closely with the incoming administration to further strengthen and broaden the Pakistan-US partnership. Experts say that this time around, the power that Trump will have is going to be far more and unchecked as he will be one of the most powerful US presidents in recent times. This is why the entire world is looking at another Trump presidency with interest – some are excited while others are on edge. International observers say that while a Trump presidency will have the most impact on local American policies and his own country, there will of course be serious consequences for foreign policy as well. There are two wars – Ukraine and Gaza – going on at the moment. Will Trump pull back US support for Ukraine? Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was amongst the first world leaders to congratulate Trump but many were of the opinion that both do not see eye to eye on the Russia-Ukraine war. Media reports suggest that US President Joe Biden is planning on sending billions of dollars in security assistance to Ukraine before Trump takes over in January. Many in Europe are not looking at a Trump presidency with excitement as there could be issues related to trade. The same thing could be said about China.

As for Gaza, experts say that there is hardly any difference between the Democrats and the Republicans when it comes to Israel. Some say that Trump is even more pro-Israel than the Biden administration, if that is even possible, and will continue to fund a genocide that the Democrats have done so with pride. When it comes to the Middle East, there is no US president who will not justify Israel’s war crimes. Coming to Pakistan, there are many in the country’s former ruling party, the PTI, who think that a Trump win may lead to its chairman Imran Khan’s eventual release. According to PTI leadership, Imran Khan expressed optimism following Trump’s victory and believes that his return could alleviate the ‘negativity’ towards Pakistan that ‘intensified’ under the Biden administration. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif on Wednesday said that Trump is unlikely to call for Imran Khan’s release from prison while other PML-N leaders hope that he does seek it so that PTI’s narrative about US interference stands exposed.

Now that US troops are no longer in Afghanistan and the US is involved more in the Ukraine and Gaza wars, South Asia as a region and Pakistan as a country comes low on any US president’s priority list. That being said, there are other ways a Trump presidency could have an outsized impact on Pakistan beyond foreign policy. The former reality TV star and real-estate mogul is notorious for his climate change denial and pro-fossil fuels stance. He has promised to leave the Paris agreement and some reports suggest he might pull out of the underlying United Nations framework treaty on climate change. Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra also does not seem too hospitable to the idea of giving developing countries funds for climate change adaptation and compensation, even though they bear the brunt of the rich world’s polluting activities. How to enhance these funds, strengthen legal and regulatory protections against global warming and get the rich countries to do their part with a climate sceptic occupying the world’s most powerful office is something countries like Pakistan must seriously think about at the upcoming COP 29.