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Donald Trump’s second act

Editorial Board
Sunday, Jan 19, 2025

It is rare for a US president to have such a decisive impact on current events even before he formally takes office tomorrow (January 20). But, soon-to-be two-time US President Donald Trump is not exactly your ordinary politician, by any stretch of the imagination. The mere fact of his election victory over outgoing US Vice President Kamala Harris has already produced real-world changes. Most notably, his newly-appointed envoy to the Middle East has already helped do what incumbent President Joe Biden and his administration could not: make Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu accept a ceasefire deal and pause his genocide in Gaza. While the plan is similar to one the Biden administration pitched several months prior and the current president was somewhat involved in the final negotiations, it is the reappearance of Trump on the presidential scene that appears to have been the decisive factor. This is a stark departure from Trump’s previous approach to the Middle East during his first term as president, when he basically gave the Zionist state a free hand to continue its colonial project and even declare Jerusalem its capital. But this is not the only issue on which the president-elect has made a surprising switch. After previously backing a ban on the popular social media app TikTok, Trump has flipped towards being more supportive of the app and its 170 million American users. And while the US Supreme Court has recently upheld a ban on TikTok in the US, Trump has reportedly suggested that he will not enforce the ban. Then there is his previous scepticism towards crypto, which has turned into a wholehearted embrace, driving the dollar-value of bitcoin past the six-figure mark.

A convicted felon, former reality TV star, real-estate mogul and newly-minted crypto kingpin, Trump has always known how to make waves. Until he became president for the first time, these waves were contained to the seas of social media. Back in the pre-2016 era, this was a realm the mainstream still did not give that much weight to. As Trump’s first presidential victory would prove, they were wrong to do so. He understood before most others that being king online increasingly meant being king in the real world too. This understanding likely plays a role in his more conciliatory turn towards TikTok. However, on other things Trump remains remarkably consistent. He is still threatening China with more trade tariffs and seems keen to revive the trade war that marked his first term in office. In fact, this time he seems even more determined to maintain US control over international finance, issuing threats against countries that seek to break away from the dollar. Most regrettably, Trump’s historic general dislike of immigrants endures. While he has recently spoken approvingly of some legal immigrants, his incoming administration appears to be gearing up to deliver a widespread crackdown on illegal migrants trying to find a better life. Meanwhile, his appointee for US attorney general, the one in charge of enforcing laws, has shown signs of ambiguity towards the concept of birthright citizenship in the US. Legal immigrants in the US are by no means beyond the pale of adverse state action under Trump.

Will Trump change his stance on some or even all of these issues? No one really knows. And this is perhaps the defining feature of his return to the presidency. In his first term, most observers seemed to have a firmer grasp of what they were getting. This time around, Trump truly does seem like a wildcard, especially in light of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal. It is also less clear how much of Trump’s fiery rhetoric is mere sabre rattling to secure a better deal under the status quo or simply win more support. This seems to have been what happened with the ceasefire deal, preceded by outlandish threats against Palestinians, and with crypto, where Trump became a fan once the crypto trading and mining world came to his support and his own digital tokens became a source of money. The world can only wait to see which card it has been dealt and uncertainty remains the most sure expectation.