There were many lies about immigrants spread during the 2024 presidential campaign. It is necessary to replace the misinformation with facts to think clearly about the economic impact of immigration and deportation on the US economy – especially since Donald Trump says he intends to move forward on mass deportation.
For all of the 21st century, there have been millions of unauthorized immigrants in the United States. The peak year on record was 2007, when there were 12.2 million unauthorized immigrants living here. In 2022, there were 11 million – 1.2 million fewer or about 10 percent less than in 2007. The provisional estimate for 2023 is 11.7 million, still below the 2007 peak.
In some cases, a sudden, rapid increase in immigrants – authorized and unauthorized – could put social and economic stress on the specific communities receiving the influx. There might be difficulties finding housing and finding space in schools, and social service organizations might find their capacity strained. At the same time, many anecdotal reports detail the economic benefits of increased immigration in particular communities.
At the US-Mexico border, migrant encounters – which refers to apprehensions and expulsions – dramatically increased from 2020 to 2023, but there was a sharp reversal in 2024. The foreign-born population, authorized and unauthorized, in the United States increased 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023. While this was the largest increase in 20 years, it was not large enough to have an impact on the day-to-day lives of most of the over 300 million people in the country.
In a population of nearly 12 million unauthorized immigrants, it would not be surprising to find that there are some number of them who commit serious crimes. The research clearly shows, however, that the rate of criminal offending among immigrants is lower than for the native-born. A study of data from the Texas Department of Public Safety, for example, found that “undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born US citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.” Further, research suggests that immigrant populations actually help to reduce crime rates in communities.
In sum, the situation in the United States in relation to immigrants today is not much different than it was a decade ago. There is no new crisis.
Unauthorized Immigrants and the US Economy: How would Trump’s planned mass deportation impact the US economy? Recent history gives us some indications. From 2008 to 2014, about 400,000 people were deported from the United States. This mass deportation allowed scholars to study its economic effects. A recent analysis concluded that for each half million immigrants deported, the US-born population would actually lose 44,000 jobs.
Excerpted: ‘Mass Deportation: a Bad Idea for the US Economy’. Courtesy: Counterpunch.org
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