India cannot suspend Indus Waters Treaty unilaterally: govt sources

ISLAMABAD: There is no mention in the Indus Waters Treaty signed between Pakistan and India in 1960 that any party can suspend the treaty unilaterally, so India cannot suspend the treaty on its own, say sources at the Ministry of Water and Resources (MoWR).

The sources, however, say that the treaty can be modified only if both parties to the dispute mutually agree. So, suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India unilaterally carries no weight under the pretext of the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJK), which seems a false flag operation. It is a political decision taken by the Modi administration, they added.

The sources said that the bilateral meetings between the two countries under PCIW (Permanent Commission of Indus Waters) may not be held shortly, and they fear that India may not share the flood data with Pakistan. The Indus Waters Treaty was a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan arranged and brokered by the World Bank to use the water available in the Indus River and its tributaries. It was signed in Karachi on September 19, 1960, by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and then Pakistani President Field Marshal Ayub Khan. The treaty gives control over the waters of the three “Eastern Rivers” – the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej located in India with a mean annual flow of 41 billion m3 (33 million acre ft) – to India, while control over the waters of the three “Western Rivers” – the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum located in India with a mean annual flow of 99 billion m3 – to Pakistan. India got about 30 percent of the total water carried by the Indus River System located in India while Pakistan got the remaining 70 percent. The treaty allows India to use the water of Western Rivers for limited irrigation use and unlimited non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, and fish culture. Engineer Arshad H Abbasi, known for his expertise on the Indus Waters Treaty, while talking to The News, said that India cannot unilaterally withdraw from the treaty. However, he pointed out the presence of certain individuals, especially an NGO closely working with RIS India, who have been advocating for revisiting the treaty and promoting India’s stance over the past decade. He further underscored that the Indus Waters Treaty has historically been recognised as a successful agreement, remaining intact even during conflicts such as the 1965 war and the 1999 Kargil War.

India, under the Modi administration, in the past, adopted an aggressive water policy against Pakistan, undermining the Indus Waters Treaty. India earlier issued a notice to Pakistan on January 25, 2023, seeking the modification in the Indus Waters Treaty two days before the hearing of the Court of Arbitration in The Hague that took place on January 27-28, 2023. India had extended the notice by invoking Article 12 of the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan also sent its response to India on the latter’s notice seeking modifications in the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.

The officials said Pakistan is a lower riparian and India is an upper riparian, and it is not possible for the lower riparian country to flout the Indus Waters Treaty’s provisions or commit any material breach. They said that the decision about the parleys on changes in the treaty will be taken once Pakistan listens to India’s concerns at the PCIW level.

However, they said that the existing treaty will continue to reign until parties to the dispute—Pakistan and India -- bilaterally introduce changes in the Water Pact.