A new era is beginning

The global strategic environment has been radically transformed over the past quarter of a century with increasing signs of the end of the US-dominated unipolar moment and the emergence of a multipolar world characterised by the primacy of power politics over international law leading to growing disorder and diminished authority of the UN in strategic issues of war and peace.

US President Trump’s disregard of recognised norms of inter-state conduct and reliance instead on unilateralism and brute use of national power has driven the last nail in the coffin of the so-called rules-based world order that had been established by the US-led West in the aftermath of World War II. This order was ostensibly for the preservation of international peace and security, promotion of economic progress through market mechanisms and free trade, and protection of human rights, but its structure and rules were primarily meant to promote the security, economic and cultural interests of the US-led West and maintain its global domination.

China’s dramatic rise over the past four decades has posed a serious challenge to the US global hegemony. China’s rapidly growing economic and military power and its outreach to the Global South through such initiatives as BRI have curtailed the US's ability to influence or determine the course of events in different regions of the world. The US has responded to China’s challenge through its policy of containment of China by strengthening its alliances with Japan, South Korea and Australia, building up its strategic partnership with India, and by establishing such forums as the Quad and AUKUS. It has also launched a worldwide campaign to vilify China’s economic outreach to the Global South. America’s criticism of BRI and CPEC needs to be seen against this background.

Unfortunately for the US and its Western allies, their attempts have failed to check China’s rise, the expansion of its influence in the Global South, and its penetration of the Western markets through a flood of manufactured goods with negative consequences for their industries and the availability of jobs domestically giving rise to domestic discontent and ultra-nationalist political pressure groups in US and Europe.

The supporters of these tendencies see globalisation and the resultant outflow of investments by MNCs to China and the Global South, and the massive inflow of cheap imports from them, as a threat to their jobs and economic prosperity. A powerful China, a re-assertive Russia and the rise of other powers have also limited the ability of the US-led West to have its way on political, security and economic issues in different regions of the world as witnessed by its inability to counter effectively Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Under President Trump’s leadership, many Republican policymakers in the US see strong hindrances to the maintenance of America’s global hegemony in the rules-based world order. They are, therefore, prepared to opt for unilateral measures in violation of recognised norms of inter-state conduct for the preservation and promotion of American security and economic interests.

The imposition of worldwide tariffs by President Trump, especially punitive tariffs on China, in a departure from the principles of free trade, America’s threats to Iran on its nuclear programme in violation of the principles of the UN Charter, America’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement for the second time under Trump, and the US disregard of UN resolutions for checking the ongoing genocide in the MidEast reflect the trend towards the triumph of unilateralism over multilateralism and the demise of the rules-based world order.

It is worthwhile to drive home the point that the emerging new era will be power-based and power-driven – decisions in it would be based increasingly on the balance of power to the neglect of considerations of international law and morality, and the quest for more and more power would be the driving force behind its decisions on major issues of peace and security. The second related point would be the diminished authority of the UN in decision-making on strategic issues of war and peace. Increasingly, decisions on such issues will be taken by powerful states elsewhere to be rubber-stamped later by the UN.

Third, the US policy of containment of China may lead to proxy wars and local conflicts in different regions of the world, especially in the Far East. Fourth, globalisation may give way to economic fragmentation with negative consequences for global economic prosperity.

Transactionalism rather than idealism, shifting alliances reflecting the fast changes in global and regional power balances, the emergence of new power centres in different regions reflecting the dispersal of power, and the growing importance of science and technology will be the hallmark of the new global era. Given the presence of several economic power centres like China, India, Japan, Indonesia and South Korea, Asia will assume the dominant role globally in economic terms that it enjoyed in the pre-industrial revolution era.

Other salient features of the emerging new era would include preoccupation with such issues as climate change, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction especially nuclear proliferation, exploration of outer space, development of new technologies such as quantum computing and biotechnology, and the growing role of cyberspace and AI in national and international affairs. The possibility that civilisational differences may play an increasingly important role in international affairs in the decades to come, as predicted by Samuel Huntington, cannot be totally ruled out.

In the calculation of national power in the new era, the most important element would be the economic and technological strength of a country and its scientific advancement in any long-term contest between nations. Nations which de-emphasise the quest for knowledge and assign low priority to economic growth and technological development will turn out to be losers in the long run. As the disintegration of the Soviet Union showed, it is dangerous to build a heavy military superstructure on weak economic and technological foundations.

Pakistan must prepare itself to face successfully the political, security, economic, technological, and cultural challenges of the emerging new era. To start with, it will have to place main reliance on building up its national power, especially its economic and technological strength and scientific advancement, for its survival and prosperity in the increasingly anarchic world that it would face in the coming decades of the 21st century. It must, therefore, assign the top priority to the goal of rapid economic and technological development.

The goal of rapid economic growth would require the allocation of maximum possible resources to economic development, combined with the policy of promoting peace in our neighbourhood to minimise the risk of war and to promote good neighbourly relations with our neighbours.

Pakistan must also continue to strengthen its cooperation with China in strategic, economic and technical fields while maintaining friendly relations and mutually beneficial cooperation with US, EU and the Muslim world. In view of the growing importance of Asia economically and strategically in the years to come, Pakistan must focus its attention on and allocate adequate resources to the development of its relations with countries in East Asia.

The writer is a retired ambassador and author of ‘Pakistan and a World in Disorder – A Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century’. He can be reached at: javid.husain@gmail.com