Water shortages may shrink rice crop in FY2023

LAHORE: Water scarcity has emerged as the single biggest factor that may shrivel the paddy crop in fiscal year 2022-23 as the sowing area is shrinking.

The likely dent in production of rice, however, may not fundamentally disturb demand and supply scenario during 2022-23 fiscal year as such given the availability of huge exportable surplus every year. As rice, the second important cereal crop of the country after wheat, is not a staple diet in this part of the world, Pakistan used to harvest about 60 percent surplus produce every year.

One of the worrying factors for inflation-hit consumers is said to be higher rice prices in the next fiscal year. The price of Basmati and coarse varieties is already going through the roof with Rs40/kg surge recorded in a single day this week in official prices notified by the administration.

According to processors, rice prices are trending up with the wheat and other grains coupled with projections of low next crop output.

According to market insiders, Pakistan, being one of the top exporters of rice, is however, expected to dominate its position at least in terms of value during 2022-23 and may recede to some extent in shipped volume due to likely drop in domestic output.

Anticipating one of the lowest river inflows of 45 percent than average and perpetual dry weather conditions with little rain since late spring season and projection of almost no rains even during pre-monsoon and early monsoon period, policymakers fixed rice sowing target on the lower side. Without rain, one simply cannot imagine sowing paddy. The crucial phase of paddy crop during May 15 to June 30, when paddy nurseries are planted and mass transplantation is done into growers’ field, has been predicted to be devoid of required moisture because of extremely low canal supplies and delay in the onset of monsoon.

Hence, the production target for the current season has been set on the lower side against last year’s record output of 8.9 million tonnes.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed a national rice production target of 8.6 million tonnes to be produced over an area of 3.1 million hectares of land for the 2022-23 season.

Punjab, the major rice producing province having over 85 percent share in production of Basmati varieties, drastically reduced the target for bringing area under cultivation for Kharif 2022 season. According to official data, Punjab foresees about 21 percent reduction in area under paddy -from 6.31 million acres cultivated last year to just 5.00 million acres in the current season.

Per acre yield of paddy is however expected to be slightly better this time, which may contribute positively in harvesting a better crop in terms of volume. The total production of rice has been pegged at from 4.70 million tonnes in 2022-23 against 5.77 million tonnes harvested last year, showing a drop of about 19 percent.

As per official data, Punjab Agriculture Department expects an ambitious all-time high yield of 23.52 maund/acre, showing about three percent improvement in productivity of harvest in the ongoing season.

Paddy crop in Sindh province, which is a lower riparian region located at the tail-end of the Indus Basin, is feared to be much shorter in terms of area during the 2022-23 season. There has been a downward trend in bringing rice under cultivation in the Sindh province, which is otherwise known for achieving higher per acre yield of coarse varieties. These varieties are particularly in high demand in the global market due to a variety of reasons.

To overcome the adverse impact of water shortage, authorities are trying to convince farmers to sow rice through mechanised direct-seeded rice (DSR) technology being a viable alternative to conventional methods of sowing under the current scenario of water and labour shortage.

According to a study, research results have shown that mechanised DSR can save 35-57 percent water, 67 percent labour and time compared to conventional sowing without any yield penalty. However, weeds used to become a major nuisance in the absence of standing water in the field, requiring higher cost on weedicides or their mechanical/manual eradication.

More importantly, owing to no proper training opportunities for the farmers to adopt such agronomic practices and lack of proper mechanical implements on large-scale, adoption of such intervention remains a pipe dream.

After water shortage, the dearth of quality seed, especially of Basmati varieties, will continue to haunt farmers. The fine quality basmati rice varieties exhibiting special features such as elongated grain and aroma have increasingly become scarce as public sector research institutions have failed to meet expectations of farmers.

Consequently, Pakistan lost its competitive edge in Basmati as indicated by its plummeting shares in total basmati export, which was conveniently snatched by its competitor India. Local institutions have not been able to introduce Basmati seed having higher yield and more elongated kernel size.

It may be noted that rice contributes 3.5 percent of value added in agriculture and 0.7 percent in GDP. Rice production comprises basmati and coarse types. For the last few years, production of coarse types has been increasing. During 2020-21, the crop was cultivated on 3,335 thousand hectares, reflecting an increase of 9.9 percent as compared to last year’s sown area of 3,034 thousand hectares. During 2021-22, a record production growth of 13.6 percent was witnessed. This was essentially due to rising unit prices and higher demand for the country’s rice in export markets. Pakistan has been among the world’s top ten largest producers of rice. Country’s exports make up around eight percent of the world's total rice trade. It is an important cash and food crop in the agriculture economy of the country.